Estimating Project Risk
Projects requiring six months to deliver valuable working software should automatically be considered medium to high risk of outright failure.
Long odds for long deliveries
Projects that invest twelve months or more before there is a return have extremely high failure rates. I believe they are at least 100 times more likely to fail than projects that can deliver valuable working software in two-month units. These projects should be considered extremely high risk.
Long projects don’t have to have long delivery cycles
Control the delivery cycle and you have controlled the risk